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Breaking Down the Regions – March 18, 2013

This is a follow-up from yesterday’s post (see below) – with the other two regions. I will continue to update these after each round, and it will be interesting to see how early round upsets affect other’s teams Final Four chance. I will consolidate all 16 into one “Championship” Bracket Sunday night.

East Region

This is another instance of quality team (Syracuse) being under-seeded and throwing off the expected Final Four Odds. Illinois-Colorado is the 7/10 game, but I think that those seeds should be flipped. This may be the region I am most excited about – only because I think I’m going to be able to see the games in the San Jose pod, and then I’ll be in DC next weekend for the Elite 8.

South Region

Many other computer models show the same thing I am here – that Florida (a 3 seed) has a better chance of making the Final four than either the #1 or #2 seeds. I also think Minnesota was under-seeded because of their subpar conference record – I have them rated the same as their opponent (UCLA) in the 6-11 matchup.

Breaking Down the Regions – March 17, 2013

I’ve always liked how Nate Silver (@FiveThirtyEight) breaks down each team’s chances of winning based on the outcomes and matchups of the other teams in their region. I’ve decided to do the same thing. The first two are up now, and the other two should be finished later today.

West Region

The two most interesting things I took from this chart are New Mexico final four chances being higher than Ohio State’s (mostly due to better matchups, they have nearly identical profiles) and Arizona (#6 Seed) and Iowa State (#10 seed) having identical four chances. My system has Belmont and Arizona being nearly even. Despite their win yesterday, my rankings have Wisconsin seeded too high, with Belmont and Iowa St seeded too low.

Midwest Region

This might be the most interesting of all the regions to me – my system completely disagrees with the seeding from Michigan St to Oregon. Missouri and Saint Mary’s are much better than their seed, while Creighton and Colorado St are perhaps a bit too high. However, this is really only a two horse race, with Duke and Louisville the heavy favorites to advance to Atlanta.

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Preview

Location: Scottrade Center; St. Louis, MO

Dates: March 7-10, 2013

First Round

#9 Drake vs. #8 Bradley

#10 Southern Illinois vs. #7 Missouri State

Second Round

Game 1 Winner vs. #1 Creighton

#5 Indiana State vs. #4 Evansville

#6 Illinois State vs. #3 Northern Iowa

Game 2 Winner vs. #2 Wichita State

Favorite: Creighton (40)

Creighton has one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball, averaging 1.19 points per possession, good for 9^th in the nation. They lead the nation in both 2-point percentage (56.9%), and 3-point percentage (42.2%). Their potency on offense offsets some of the struggles that the team faces on the defensive end. Their prolific offense is the reason why Creighton outscored MVC opponents by .15 points per possession, despite having only the 6^th best defense in the conference. Creighton has improved drastically on the defensive end of the court this season, but it will be interesting to see if they can increase their attention on that side of the court going forward in the postseason. The Blue Jays are led by arguably the best offensive player in college basketball in junior forward Doug McDermott. McDermott is a highly efficient scorer, shooting 59.4% on 2-pointers, and 48.1% on 3-pointers.

Sleeper: Indiana State (129)

The Sycamores lurk as a dangerous team in this year’s MVC Tournament. They defeated both Indiana State and Creighton this season, along with potential #1 seed Miami and several other tournament hopefuls. Do not let the 17-13 overall record fool you, Indiana State is amongst the better mid-majors in the nation this season. Indiana State does a tremendous job of drawing fouls, as they take over 22 free throw attempts per game. They are led by senior guard Jake Odum, who is a magnet to the free throw line. Odum averages almost as many free throw attempts (7.4), as he does field goal attempts (8.3) per game.

Winner: Wichita State (39)

Wichita State was neck and neck with Creighton all season long, losing the conference on the last day of the season in a 91-79 loss to the Blue Jays. Wichita State does a tremendous job of controlling the glass as they led the MVC in both offensive rebounding rate, collecting 36.9% of their misses, and opponent offensive rebounding rate, allowing opponents to collect 24.3% of their misses. The Shockers also do a terrific job of altering shots, blocking 12% of the shots their opponents take in conference play. Wichita hangs its hat on its defensive play, and that should be beneficial in Arch Madness this weekend.

West Coast Conference Tournament Preview

Location: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Dates: March 6-11, 2013

First Round

#9 Loyola Marymount vs. #8 Portland

Second Round

Game 1 Winner vs. #5 San Francisco

#7 Pepperdine vs. #6 San Diego

Quarterfinals

Game 2 Winner vs. #4 Santa Clara

Game 3 Winner vs. #3 BYU

Semifinals

Game 4 Winner vs. #1 Gonzaga

Game 5 Winner vs. #2 St. Mary’s

Favorite: Gonzaga (6)

Gonzaga is the only team left in college basketball that has not lost yet in conference play. The Bulldogs 16-0 mark in the conference has been fueled by the fact that Gonzaga has outscored opponents by an amazing .30 points per possession. Gonzaga has dominated the WCC, and it has not been close. They are either first or second in basically all major statistical categories in the conference, which also speaks to their dominance thus far. If Gonzaga can win the WCC tournament, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will receive a #1 seed, and quite possibly the overall #1 seed when the brackets are announced. This year’s version of the Bulldogs are Mark Few’s most complete group in his tenure at the school, scoring 1.20 points per possession, while holding opponents to only .89 points per their possession. If anyone hopes to beat the Bulldogs, they will have to outscore them, as Gonzaga has only played one game this year where they averaged less than 1 point per possession (Clemson).

Sleeper: San Francisco (157)

It is hard coming up with a sleeper when no team in the conference has defeated St. Mary’s or Gonzaga. However, if any team looks ready for the task at hand, it is San Francisco. The Dons played both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s relatively close in both of their matchups with the teams. What makes San Francisco a major sleeper in this tournament is the fact that they are one of the nation’s best at shooting 3-pointers. They are 9^th in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage, making 40.2% of them on the year. During conference play, the Dons shot 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc, and have made 41.1% of these shots thus far. It is possible that the Dons could get hot from behind the arc during the WCC tournament, and find a way to upset the favorites in Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.

Winner: St. Mary’s (25)

If Gonzaga is far and away the best team in the West Coast this season, you can make the case that St. Mary’s has separated itself from the rest of the conference as the 2^nd best team in the conference. While their mastery has not been on the level of Gonzaga, St. Mary’s dominance in the conference has been just as impressive, outscoring opponents by .20 points per possession. The Gaels finished the season with a 14-2 record in the conference, with both of their losses coming to Gonzaga. St. Mary’s has the firepower to match Gonzaga offensively, as they were 9^th in the nation in offensive efficiency (116.7). Defeating a team three times in one year is one of the hardest tasks in college basketball, and should we get a third matchup of Gonzaga-St. Mary’s in the WCC final, St. Mary’s has more than enough talent to pull off the upset.

Patriot League Tournament Preview

Location: Campus Sites

Dates: March 6-13, 2013

First Round

#8 Navy vs. #1 Bucknell

#5 American vs. #4 Army

#7 Holy Cross vs. #2 Lafayette

#6 Colgate vs. #3 Lehigh

Favorite: Bucknell (52)

Bucknell stormed through the Patriot League this season, finishing 12-2 in conference play. They outscored conference opponents by .16 points per possession, which was the result of having the best defense in the conference. Bucknell held opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 42.8%, good for 7^th in the nation. In addition to doing a fantastic job of holding teams to low shooting percentages, the Bison are also fantastic at holding teams to few second chance opportunities. Bucknell’s ability to dominate the defensive glass has led to them allowing opponents to collect 23.9% of available offensive rebounds, a mark good enough for 2^nd in the nation. Considering the fact that teams miss a significant amount of their shots when playing Bucknell, this is a rather remarkable feat.

Sleeper: Lafayette (226)

Winners of their last five, Lafayette enters the Patriot League tournament poised to knock off favorite Bucknell. The Leopards are owners of the Patriot’s best offense, scoring 1.08 points per possession, which is helped by having one of the nation’s best 3-point percentages (38.2%). Almost 40% of their shots come from behind the arc, and they connect on them with a frequency that justifies their reliance on the shot. Lafayette also does a great job of maximizing their possessions on offense with a 15.1% turnover percentage, while forcing turnovers on over a fifth of their opponents’ possessions.

Winner: Bucknell (52)

Bucknell will have the advantage of playing every game in their home arena, a place that they only lost once this entire season. Their biggest competition in the Patriot, Lehigh, will most likely be without All-American guard C.J. McCollum, who suffered a broken left foot in early January. The Bison are led by their own star, and probably the best college basketball player that the average fan has never heard of - senior big man Mike Muscala. Muscala is a major reasonwhyBucknell dominates the defensive glass, as he is third in the nation in defensive rebounding rate (28.5%). Their ability to limit second chance opportunities, along with the fact that they rank nationally in the top 5 for turnover percentage (15.6%), will make it difficult for anyone to come into Bucknell and knock off the home favorites.

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Preview

Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, TN

Dates: March 6-9, 2013

First Round

#8 UT Martin vs. #5 Morehead State

#7 Eastern Illinois vs. #6 Southeast Missouri

Quarterfinals

Game 1 Winner vs. #4 Tennessee State

Game 2 Winner vs. #3 Eastern Kentucky

Semifinals

Game 3 Winner vs. #1 Belmont

Game 4 Winner vs. #2 Murray State

Favorite: Belmont (30)

Where do we start with Belmont? The Bruins are outscoring Ohio Valley opponents by a staggering .23 points per possession. They have the 2^nd best effective field goal percentage (57.2%) in the nation. On the defensive side of the ball, Belmont forces turnovers on 24.4% of their opponents’ possession, good for 15^thin the country. Belmont stormed through the Ohio Valley to a 14-2 record, and will have the pleasure of playing the OVC tournament just a few blocks down from its campus. There is a pretty good reason why Belmont is considered the favorite to win the Ohio Valley tournament, and secure the conference’s automatic bid.

Sleeper: Eastern Kentucky (83)

It might be odd to see the 2^nd highest ranked team in the conference as the sleeper, but Belmont has been so dominant this season that every other team in the conference faces a significant uphill battle to defeat the Bruins. The team best equipped to knock off Belmont is Eastern Kentucky. The Colonels are great at protecting the basketball, and forcing teams into turning the ball over. Eastern Kentucky is 4^th in the nation in opponent turnover percentage (26.3%), which is impressive considering the fact that they play at a slower pace than most teams that force a significant amount of turnovers. They also do a great job of converting free scoring opportunities, as they are 2^nd in nation in free throw percentage, shooting 78.5% from the line.

Winner: Belmont (30)

The Bruins are just too good and too focused for anyone to beat them this weekend in Nashville. Belmont is playing for the chance to earn a single digit seed in this year’s tournament, and there is a pretty good chance that they do earn such a seeding when the brackets are released on March 17^th. The Bruins are one of the most experienced teams in the nation, starting 3 seniors and 2 juniors, which has a tremendous benefit at this time of the year.

Northeast Conference Tournament Preview

Location: Campus Sites

Dates: March 6-9, 2013

First Round

#8 St. Francis Brooklyn vs. #1 Robert Morris
#7 Central Connecticut vs. #2 Wagner
#6 Quinnipiac vs. #3 LIU Brooklyn
#5 Mount St. Mary's vs. #4 Bryant

Favorite: Robert Morris (119)

Robert Morris, as the #1 seed in the tournament, will have the pleasure of playing in their home gym for every game, where they only lost twice all season long. In Northeast play, they have outscored opponents by .13 points per possession, the best differential in the league this season. What makes the Colonials so efficient on defense is the fact that they force turnovers on 24.7% of possessions in Northeast Conference play. Offensively, the Colonials take a large percentage of three pointers (40.4% of all their shots), and make a significant amount of them (40.7%) in conference play. Their propensity for shooting 3-pointers, along with the consistency in which they knock them down makes them a tough out for anyone that travels to Pittsburgh to face them.

Sleeper: Mount St. Mary’s (217)

Mount St. Mary’s enters the Northeast Conference tournament as the hottest team in the league, winning their last 7 games. Much like Robert Morris, Mount St. Mary’s does a great job of forcing turnovers. They were amongst the nation’s best at opponents’ turnover percentage, forcing turnovers on 24.5% of their opponents’ possessions. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, they will have to rely on their ability to force turnovers on the defensive end if they hope to pull off some upsets in this tournament, as they are amongst the nation’s worst in effective field goal percentage.

Winner: Bryant (134)

One of two teams to hand Robert Morris a loss at home this season was Bryant, where they defeated the Colonials by 7 points. The Bulldogs led the Northeast in offensive efficiency (117.0) & effective field goal percentage (58.1%), and was able to exploit Robert Morris’s vaunted defense in both of their matchups. Bryant is particularly efficient as 2-pointers, as they scored on 58.5% of their 2-point baskets, which was the best mark in the conference this season. Given Bryant’s offensive efficiency, and the fact that they have already defeated Robert Morris once at home already, the Bulldogs should be poised to knock off the Colonials and win the Northeast automatic bid.

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Preview

Location: Hawkins Arena, Macon, GA

Dates: March 6-9, 2013

First Round

#1 Mercer vs. #8 Lipscomb
#2 FGCU vs. #7 North Florida
#3 Stetson vs. #6 ETSU
#4 Jacksonville vs. #5 USC Upstate

Favorite: Mercer (165)

Mercer enters the Atlantic Sun tournament as the hottest team in the conference, winning 9 of the team’s last 10 matchups. The Bears led the Atlantic Sun in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season, en route to a 14-4 conference record. Mercer plays at one of the slowest tempos (62.4 possessions/game) in the conference, and they outscore teams by .14 points per possession. Conference opponents get their shots blocked on 13% of possessions against Mercer, which is best in the conference. In addition to dominating Atlantic Sun competition, Mercer also holds a key victory over NCAA tournament hopeful Alabama.

Sleeper: Stetson (223)

If it were not for Mercer, Stetson would be the hottest team entering the tournament, winning 5 of their 6 last games. They have been doing it with great shooting from behind the arc, making a conference-best 38.7% of their threes during league play. The Hatters are an unselfish bunch, assisting on 66.7% of their made field goals. In a 3 game tournament, Stetson’s unselfishness and efficiency from the three point line makes them a candidate to knock off favorite Mercer and steal the Atlantic Sun’s automatic bid.

Winner: Florida Gulf Coast (108)

While Mercer won the regular season conference title, our metrics have Florida Gulf Coast as the far superior team, and it is easy to see why the metrics make that case. The Eagles do a great job of forcing their opponents into committing turnovers, as conference foes turn the ball over on 21.9% of their possessions. Florida Gulf Coast also is amongst the nation’s best at making 2-pointers, converting 53% of their twos on the season. They split the season series with conference favorite Mercer, with their loss to Mercer coming in a road overtime loss. Given how close both teams are, the Eagles are in a good position to win the Atlantic Sun automatic bid.

Note: This conference preview was written by Geoff Hutchinson. Geoff can be found on twitter at @HutchNGo.

Big South Conference Tournament Preview

Location: HTC Center, Conway, S.C

Dates: March 5-10, 2013

First Round

#4N Radford vs. #5S Winthrop
#3S UNC Asheville vs. #6N Longwood
#3N Campbell vs. #6S Presbyterian College
#4S Coastal Carolina vs. #5N Liberty

Quarterfinals

Game 1 Winner vs. #1S Charleston Southern

Game 2 Winner vs. #2N VMI

Game 3 Winner vs. #2S Gardner-Webb

Game 4 Winner vs. #1N High Point

Favorite: Charleston Southern (154)

Charleston Southern enters the Big South tournament as the #1 seed from the South Division, which has been more competitive than the North Division this season. The Buccaneers are one of the nation’s leaders in three point attempts, as 42.9% of the team’s shots are from behind the arc. Teams in the Big South have not been able to stop the team as they lead the conference in 3 point percentage (37.1%). They take a large amount of the most efficient shot in basketball, and make a great enough percentage of them to justify their reliance on the shot. On the defensive end of the court, the Buccaneers do a great job of limiting second chance opportunities for its opponents, as conference opponents to a 28.8% offensive rebound rate.

Sleeper: Coastal Carolina (224)

Coastal Carolina has the pleasure of having the conference tournament being played in its home arena, which should make them a dangerous foe for this week. The Chanticleers have dominated the rebounding margin in the Big South this season, gathering 38.4% of all their available offensive rebounds, while allowing opponents to gather 28.8% of their own misses. In addition to their rebounding prowess, Coastal Carolina does a great job of causing havoc when their opponents have the basketball, leading the conference with a 12% steal range. Unfortunately for them, they are not particularly careful with the ball themselves, turning the ball over on over 20% of their possessions.

Winner: Charleston Southern (154)

The Buccaneers have outscored conference opponents by .10 per possession, which is second in the conference behind High Point. High Point could have gotten serious consideration in this spot, but success in the tournament seems unlikely after the loss of super freshman John Brown to a broken foot last week. Charleston Southern is coming off losses in 2 of their last 3 games, but given the overall success of the team this season, they will find a way to generate some momentum and advance to the NCAA tournament.

Note: This conference preview was written by Geoff Hutchinson. Geoff can be found on twitter at @HutchNGo.

Horizon League Tournament Preview

Location: Campus sites for the first round & final; Valparaiso, IN for the quarterfinals & semifinals

Dates: March 5-12, 2013

First Round

#9 Milwaukee vs. #4 Green Bay

#8 Cleveland State vs. #5 Illinois-Chicago

#7 Loyola vs. #6 Youngstown State

Second Round

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner

Game 3 Winner vs. #3 Wright State

Semifinals

Game 5 Winner vs. #1 Valparaiso

Game 4 Winner vs. #2 Detroit

Favorite: Valparaiso (86)

Horizon League opponents have struggled stopping the Crusaders from scoring this season. Valparaiso outscored conference opponents by .14 per possession en route to a 13-3 conference record. Valparaiso led the Horizon in both 2 point (56.5%) and 3 point percentage (38.9%). In addition to leading the league in 3 point accuracy, they have held opponents to the lowest amount of 3 point percentage (30.9%) in conference play. Valpo will also have the advantage of playing its games in its home arena, where they only lost twice this year.

Sleeper: Wright State (141)

In March, defense wins championships, and if any team has a chance of pulling an upset or two in the Horizon tournament, it would be the stingy Wright State Raiders. Conference foes have struggled offensively against them, as they have held opponents to an offensive efficiency of 92.6 per 100 possessions, and forced turnovers on 25.6% of their opponents’ possessions. Very impressive numbers for the best defense in the Horizon League. The key for the Raiders going forward will be their ability to generate enough offense to advance in the tournament, as they have struggled at times on the offensive side of the ball. If Wright State can advance to the semifinals, they will a face Detroit team that they split the season series with.

Winner: Detroit (82)

One of the two teams to defeat Valparaiso in their home gym this season was the Detroit Titans. Detroit led the Horizon League in points per possession differential, outscoring opponents by .15 per possession, while playing at the 15^th fastest tempo in the nation with 70.9 possessions per game. A rather impressive component of Detroit’s offense is the fact that they led the Horizon in turnover percentage (14.4) given their uptempo pace. They split the season series with Valparaiso, including a home loss that saw Detroit blow a late game lead after comfortably leading for most of the game. The teams that have been able to defeat Detroit this season, have been able to force Detroit into a slower tempo game. However, teams in the Horizon this season have not been able to slow them down, and it is not likely that teams will start slowing them down now.

Early Conference Leaders

As we approach the beginnings of conference play, we have enough data to look and see who the conference leaders are - and how they compare to the rest of their conference. This first table shows the conference leaders that have the biggest gap between themselves and the 2nd best team in their conference. SchoolsWith the Highest Difference Between Self and 2nd Highest in own Conference

Conference	School	Ranking	Second Place School	Delta
SoCon	Davidson	.614	Charleston	.126
Big South	Gardner-Webb	.568	UNC-Asheville	.116
SEC	Florida	.810	Texas A&M	.100
Big Sky	Weber St	.579	N Arizona	.099
Ivy League	Princeton	.581	Columbia	.085

Instead of comparing against the 2nd place team, I also looked at which teams are the highest against their league average.

Schools With the Highest Difference Between Self and Conference Avereage

Conference	School	Ranking	Ranking Above Avg.
SEC	Florida	.810	.221
West Coast	Gonzaga	.741	.204
SoCon	Davidson	.615	.200
America East	Stony Brook	.628	.184
Big XII	Kansas	.797	.180

Seeing Florida and Davidson on both lists, its apparent they are the two schools most likely to not just win their conference - but they have a real shot at running the table in conference play.

Most Inconsistent Teams - 12/17/2012

By looking at the standard deviation of each team's Win Probabilities, I am able to determine which teams are the most inconsistent (or the most consistent). The expectation is that the inconsistent teams will be ranked in the middle of the pack, while the "consistent" teams will either be consistently good (or bad).

Most Inconsistent Teams

School	Record	Avg. CWP	Min CWP	Max CWP	Std Dev CWP
Denver	3-5	0.404	.017	.979	.444
USC Upstate	3-5	0.432	.003	.983	.443
High Point	2-5	0.474	.059	.899	.442
Miss. St	3-6	0.330	.010	.963	.440
Tulsa	5-4	0.531	.008	.953	.439

While these teams are all relatively mediocre (or bad) - the teams with the smallest variance in CWP are Miss Valley State, Syracuse, Grambling State, and Kansas. Syracuse and Kansas are ranked #2 and #3, respectively, while Grambling is #347 (which is lowest of all D-1 teams), and Miss Valley St isn't far behind at 328.

Details of my Leverage Index - 12/1/2012

With six years of play-by-play data, I've made several changes to the core processes to produce my rankings. Last year, all win probabilities were based on all the games - I looked at Home vs. Away, but never took into account the quality of the teams. Kentucky being down 5 with ten minutes to go against Central Connecticut State on a Neutral Floor is a lot different than if the score was flipped (about 99% vs about 10%). In addition to this, I have created a "Leverage Index" that measures the potential impact of each situation in the game. I took each possible situation (Matchup, Margin, Timeleft) and looked at how the win probability would change if each team scored 1 pt - and then averaged the differences to measure each situations leverage.
Some examples:
A vs. B - Up 6, 10 Minutes Left

Matchup	Margin	Minutes Left	Win Probability
A vs. B	5	10	89%
A vs. B	6	10	94%
A vs. B	7	10	99%

In this example, then Win Probability of being up 6 with 10 minutes to go is 94% - but the Leverage Index is about 5% - which is relatively high.

A vs. B - Up 1, 3 Minutes Left

Matchup	Margin	Minutes Left	Win Probability
A vs. B	0	3	60%
A vs. B	1	3	72%
A vs. B	2	3	86%

However here, the Leverage Index is much higher - about 13% (average of 12% and 14%).

I've tried in the past to quantify garbage time - and this tool can enhance that. By looking at plays that are high-leverage at any time in the game - we can create a much more general concept of "crunch time" than simply looking at plays in "late and close" games.

Most Unusual Games of the Year: First Three Weeks Edition - 11/30/2012

This is the first full season of running this site for me - so I was not sure how long it would take before the Rankings and Stats became meaningful. Even though there is plenty of room for growth - I feel pretty confident that this site reflects most everything that has happened so far this season. With that said - I'd like to highlight some of the most unique individual performances so far this season.

#1: Ian Clark, Belmont: In a 74-71 loss to Northeastern in Alaska, Ian Clark had one of the most remarkable games of the year. He scored 29pts on 13 shots (10/13 from the floor, 9/11 from 3s) - but he was 0/0 from the free throw line AND managed to FOUL OUT. He did all of this in 26 minutes. I'll be shocked if this doesn't remain the top game all year.
#2: Derrick Thomas, Drexel: While Clark was a marvel of efficiency - Derrick Thomas' performance is remarkable for how little impact he had on the box score. He managed to play 32 minutes, go 0/3 from the floor, and manage only 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 1 personal foul.
#3: Keifer Sykes, Green Bay: I am not quite sure what bucket to put this game into. This was in Green Bay's season opening win over Chicago St. Sykes scores 31 pts on 14 shots (7/14 from the floor, 0/0 on 3s, and 17/19 on FTs). If thats all he did, it would be pretty remarkable - but he also managed NINE turnovers and ZERO assists. If anyone can provide me with highlights of this game - let me know.

SevenOvertimes Tour of College Basketball

With my recent relocation to the west coast - I'm going to make a large effort this year to visit as many colleges - and colleges games as I can. Even though there are plenty of schools in the Bay Area (Cal, Stanford, St. Marys, USF, Santa Clara, San Jose State - and several more within a modest drive) - I decided to start this effort with a trip up to Eugene to see Vanderbilt play against Oregon. I've been to dozens of Vandy games in my life - and a fair number of them have gone poorly. But I don't think I've seen a game like this since the disaster against Siena in the first round of the 2008 NCAA Tournament. The ONLY time this game was close was at 17-14 when Vandy missed a 3. About 15 earth minutes and 10 game minutes later, it was 41-20. The only exciting thing for Vandy in the entire game was seeing Stallings get ejected.

This was by far the newest college basketball gym I have ever been to - and the nicest. The court was as unique as I expected, and I don't expect to attend another game like it all year.

Geographic Recruiting Diversity by Conference

Updated 2.26.12

I had always been under the assumption that public schools were more likely to recruit in state and that private schools were more likely to go outside their local area to find talent. The table below shows the average # of different states/countries represented on each team by conference. The Ivy and Patriot leagues (both located predominately on the east coast - where there are smaller states - and have excellent academics) lead the pack with averages of 11 and 10, respectively. The average was approximately 7.75, with the Atlantic Sun, Big West, and Southland at the bottom - featuring an average of less than 6 teams each.

Conference Name	Avg # of States Per Team
Ivy	11.5
Patriot	10.5
Southern	8.8
Missouri Valley	8.8
America East	8.4
Atlantic Ten	8.4
Big East	8.4
Conference USA	8.3
Big South	8.09
Ohio Valley	8.0
Colonial	8.0
Pac-12	7.9
Sunbelt	7.8
ACC	7.8
Mountain West	7.7
Northeast	7.7
Horizon League	7.7
Big Sky	7.6
MEAC	7.6
SEC	7.5
WAc	7.5
Big Ten	7.5
Independents	7.4
Big XII	7.4
SWAC	7.3
Great West	7.3
MAAC	7.0
West Coast	6.6
MAC	6.6
Summit	6.5
Atlantic Sun	5.7
Southland	5.4
Big West	5.3

Most Unlikely Upsets

Updated 2.23.12

A previous post discussed the most unlikely comebacks. This post is about highlight three of the most unlikely upsets of the year. I limited my dataset to conference play only - and wanted to find the games with the highest predicted margin where the home team lost. There might've been games where a heavy road favorite lost - but losing on someone's home court is not as interesting.

Home Team	Visitor Team	Game Date	Final Score	Predicted Margin	Variance
Charleston	UNC Greensboro	2012-01-12	66-77	24	-31
Texas A&M-CC	UTSA	2012-01-11	49-50	20	-21
UMBC	New Hampshire	2012-01-02	76-82	20	-26

Home Court Advantage By Conference

Updated 2.17.12

A common belief on the difference between good teams and just average teams is their ability to win on the road - in conference play. This made me decide to examine Home Court Advantage - by Conference - to see which conferences have the strongest effect. This difference could be due to lots of average teams (like Arkansas who can't win on the road) or lots of "tough" teams (apparently tough means they can win on the road to most people). The rankings below are for all games thru Wednesday January 16th, 2012.

Rank	Conference Name	# of Wins	# of Games	Win %
1	SEC	48	65	73.8%
2	Pac-12	51	77	66.2%
3	A-10	50	76	65.7%
4	Mountain West	24	37	64.8%
5	SoCon	58	90	64.4%
6	MAC	45	70	64.2%
7	C-USA	43	67	64.1%
8	B1G Ten	49	77	63.6%
9	MVC	47	74	63.5%
10	Big XII	41	65	63.0%
11	BIG EAST	66	105	62.6%
12	Summit	40	65	61.5%
13	Horizon	48	78	61.5%
14	Great West	11	18	61.1%
15	WAC	25	41	60.9%
16	MAAC	47	78	60.2%
17	Ohio Valley	47	78	60.2%
18	ACC	38	64	59.3%
19	SWAC	35	59	59.3%
20	Patriot	25	43	58.1%
21	Ivy	18	31	58.0%
22	Colonial	55	95	57.8%
23	Big South	41	71	57.7%
24	Southland	41	72	56.9%
25	A-Sun	40	72	55.5%
26	WCC	31	56	55.3%
27	Big West	28	51	54.9%
28	America East	34	63	53.9%
29	Big Sky	30	58	51.7%
30	NEC	38	74	51.3%
31	Sun Belt	38	74	51.3%
32	MEAC	27	55	49.1%

Quantifying "Garbage Time"

Updated 2.15.2012

By looking at cumulative win probabilities I am able to quantify "garbage time" and see what percent of each team's game are spent in garbage time. My definition of garbage time is any play where either team has a 98% chance of winning. The top 5 Teams in Postive Garbage Time (when they are predicted to win) and Top 5 Teams in Negative Garbage Time can be seen below.

Top Postive Garbage Time Teams

Rank	Team Name	Garbage Winning Plays	Garbage Losing Plays	Total Garbage Plays	Total Plays	Postive Garbage %	Negative Garbage %	Total Garbage Percent
1	Ohio St	2639	44	2683	6965	37.8%	.6%	38.5%
2	Kentucky	2757	1	2972	7902	34.8%	.01%	34.9%
3	North Carolina	2760	212	2972	7988	34.5%	2.6%	37.2%
4	Syracuse	2375	110	2485	7537	31.5%	1.4%	32.9%
5	Florida	2137	427	2564	6995	30.5%	6.1%	36.6%

Top Negative Garbage Time Teams

Rank	Team Name	Garbage Winning Plays	Garbage Losing Plays	Total Garbage Plays	Total Plays	Postive Garbage %	Negative Garbage %	Total Garbage Percent
1	Grambling St	1	1385	1386	2201	.04%	62.9%	62.9%
2	Texas Southern	26	1524	1550	3143	.8%	48.5%	49.3%
3	Miss. Valley St	20	1597	1617	3326	.6%	48.0%	48.6%
4	Alabama A&M	0	1000	1000	2347	0.0%	42.6%	42.6%
5	Alcorn St	0	720	720	1690	0.0%	42.6%	42.6%

Top 3 Craziest Comeback of the Year (so far)

Updated 2.14.2012

One of the great things about my system is that it makes it very easy to quantify the most unlikely comebacks. I'm not totally satisfied that the current design credits a comeback as "bad luck" by the losing team, but until I can develop a better system, its the one I'm using. These are the games in my database where the winning team had the lowest cumulative win probability over the course of the game.

#1 Manhattan 75, Iona 72, January 12, 2012

Iona, undefeated in MAAC play at the time (5-0), had a 17 point half time lead, and still had that with 7:58 to play in the game. Manhattan went on 21-4 run to eventually tie the game. A Lamont Jones jumper tied the game with 3 seconds left, and a three pointer by Emmy Andujar with 1 second left gave Manhattan the most unlikely win of the year. The cumulative win prob for Manhattan was a measly 9.1%.

ESPN Box Score

#2 UC Riverside 64, Washington St 63, November 27, 2011

This game was much earlier in the season, and unlike Iona's undefeated conference record, the only thing on the line here was 7th place in the 76Classic.Wazzu had a 7 point lead at the half, and led by 17 with 7:05 to go. UC Riverside went on a 14-0 run over the next 3 minutes to get back into the game, and scored the winning bucket with 13 seconds left. UC Riverside's cumulative win probability was 11.4%

ESPN Box Score

#3 Purdue 63, Xavier 66, December 3, 2011

With 10:44 left in this game, Purdue took a 55-36 lead. Senior Guard Tu Holloway scored 21 points, including 3 straight 3s in the last two minutes to bring Xavier back into the game. Xavier took the lead at 61-60 with 1:06 left after losing the lead at 2-0 early in the game. Xavier's CWP for this game was 21.9%

ESPN Box Score

7OT Player of the Year

Updated 2.14.2012

In an effort to identify my own "Player of the Year" candidates, I wanted to find the ten guys who had the most Win Probability Added, but also played for "good" teams. My criteria for good became a team who was more than 3 games over .500 overall and more than 1 game over .500 in the conference. This dropped out players like Shane Gibson at Sacred Heart who are putting up gaudy numbers on subpar teams.The list:

Rank	Player	Team	WPA
1	Doug McDermott	Creighton	15.25
2	John Jenkins	Vanderbilt	14.15
3	Dominique Morrison	Oral Roberts	13.32
4	Kyle Weems	Missouri St	12.55
5	Ramone Moore	Temple	12.51
6	Toure' Murry	Wichita St	12.20
7	Isaiah Canaan	Murray St	11.97
8	Dee Bost	Miss St	11.60
9	Kevin Murphy	Tennessee Tech	11.57
10	Lamont Jones	Iona	11.49

Most Clutch Players

Instead of filtering for players on "good" teams, I wanted to see which players were the most successful in the clutch so far this season. I defined "clutch" as Average WPA in games where the margin was within 5 points with less than 10 minutes to go in a game. Players needed 75 plays to qualify, and are sorted by Average WPA, not Total WPA as they are above. The top ten:

Rank	Player	Team	AverageWPA	# of Plays
1	Zack Rosen	Pennsylvania	.050	84
2	Khalid Mutakabbir	Presbyterian	.049	76
3	Tashan Newsome	Garnder-Webb	.046	78
4	Shane Gibson	Sacred Heart	.045	95
5	Mike Moore	Hofstra	.045	85
6	Kent Bazemore	Old Dominion	.043	104
7	Julius Mays	Wright St	.042	87
8	Terrance Henry	Ole Miss	.041	86
9	Torrey Craig	USC Upstate	.041	89
10	Kevin Dillard	Iona	.041	89